The population
of Perth is set to double in the next 30 years. Accordingly serious
attention needs to be given to the
above resource flows if
a high quality of life is to be sustained for all these
people, for that duration and beyond. This presents the
opportunity for a new
way forward in urban sustainability.
Water Now
Perth’s
rainfall has declined by 15% in the last 20 years leading to a
reduction of 50% of runoff into the Darling Scarp catchment
dams. Under even the most conservative climate modeling
scenarios rainfall in the southwest will continue to decline.
The current
business-as-usual approach to urban development and renewal will
lead to severe water supply restrictions
within 10 years – restrictions
beyond mere part-time sprinkler bans.
Energy Now
At
current rates of consumption, which is rapidly increasing anyway,
the world’s economically exploitable oil will be exhausted
in 50 years, gas in 100 years and coal in 200
years. A shift to coal-derived oil and gas can occur but nevertheless
the global CO2 emissions will
continue to rise and climate change is forecast
to deliver increasingly catastrophic temperature and storm events
over the next 30 years.
Untamed urban
sprawl with no local economic opportunities will continue to deliver
increasing traffic flows
with congestion and air pollution.
Increasing
fossil fuel prices will render current modes of daily intra urban
commuting over large
distances economically unviable.
Food Now
The
world’s supply of phosphorus used for the manufacture of
chemical fertilizers to grow food by
industrialized agriculture will be depleted within 50 years. As
has occurred in previous civilizations
which collapsed due to over-exploitation
of their forests and soils Australia too has created desolate and
salinised landscapes for agriculture.
In the meantime,
vast quantities of P and other nutrients essential for plant
growth
are disposed
of to the
environment via sewage
to ocean outfalls, and
Organic materials
valuable for soil-building in our solid wastes are sent to landfill
and incinerators.
Materials Now
The
global construction and demolition sector contributes over 40%
of the
world’s greenhouse gas emissions.
This is for the total lifecycle
of a building: the sourcing of
materials, manufacture of
components, construction, occupancy,
demolition and disposal. For sourcing
the materials forests are felled
and new quarries opened
for more raw materials, the ocean
floor is dredged for lime to make
cement.
In the meantime,
over 50% by mass of waste to landfill is construction
and
demolition
waste.
The ancient
Greeks developed solar architecture and planned
whole
cities in Greece and
Asia Minor such
as Priene
by Hippodamus of Miletus, to
allow every homeowner access
to sunlight
during
winter
to warm
their homes. By running the
streets in a checkerboard pattern
east-west and north-south,
every home could face south, permitting
the winter
sun to flow into the house
throughout the
day. Nevertheless, the Ancient
Greeks had their
own "energy crisis". They used
all of the wood surrounding their cities and did not plan ahead by
planting more trees. They had to get wood from far away sources.
Even now modern planners pay scant regard to solar design yet this
is just the first step to a sustainable urban settlement.